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TEDxWomen:会晤中国未来的领袖

2015 年 05 月 30 日 • 阅读: 336 • 分享

2015年5月30日

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I like every one to meet the future leaders of China. The first generation born under the one child policy, the 80 hou, post 80s, the little emperors and empresses. They will be leading China in just about 10 years’ time.

我想让大家见见中国未来的领军人物。计划生育政策下的第一代,也就是80后,家里的小皇帝和小公主们。10年之后,他们将会引领中国。

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So the world often asks, what does the future hold for China? Will there be a major shift in paradigm, in mentality? Will the transition be smooth? or probably be smooth?

人们常常会问,中国的未来是什么样子?这个国家的思维模式和精神状态会发生大转变吗?这样的转变会顺利进行吗?或者,有没有可能顺利进行?

Well, they may fail to realize, that the biggest change, potential discontinuity is going to occur. When power is transferred to that generation, radically different, cyber connected, hyper educated, global citizens of the world. So today 70% of Chinese youth is online. They live to combine information. We sent about 400 thousand students aboard to get a foreign degree every year. They are open minded. They also have some peculiar consumption habits. The speed with which they are ready to weep out their credit cards, or their parents’ credit cards, is uncanny. They will turn China from being a global seller, to global buyer.

但是,大家可能还没有意识到,权力向下一代转移时,将会发生巨大的改变,潜在的断层也会出现。下一代是截然不同的一代,他们用网络连接世界、拥有高学历,他们是世界公民。现在,70%的中国青年都在上网,他们懂得整合信息。每年,中国有40万学子出国留学,他们思维开阔,也有一些独特的消费习惯。他们刷爆信用卡的速度很可怕——不管是自己的卡,还是父母的卡。他们将会推动中国从世界卖家转变为世界买家。

So change is going to happen because they will be on stage. And so the world should just be more relaxed because of it. But there is something peculiar about the only child generation.And it’s not because China has changed so much, not just because of it. It’sbecause it’s special unique products of the one child policy.

改变即将发生,因为他们即将登上历史的舞台,大家不用太紧张。但是,独生子女一代也有一些特点,这些特点与中国已有的众多改变无关,或者说,这些特点的形成还有其他原因,它们是计划生育政策下的特殊产物。

So, I am a, you know 80 hou, post 80s, only child. I am also an academic economist. So I thought well I better study this subject matter a little bit more, thinking that I have some first-hand information or first-hand insight. And so my French coauthors and Ihave found that there are some unintended but pretty significant consequences to the one child policy. Of course apart from the main goal, which was to reduce population growth, which was a successful act.

我也是80后,家里的独生女,我还是一位经济学者。我觉得自己应该更深入地探究一下这个问题,因为我能获得一手的信息,或者说,我拥有最直接的感悟。我和我的法国同事发现,计划生育政策确实带来了一些偶然的,却非常显著的后果。当然,我们说的并不是降低人口增长速度,那是计划生育政策的主要目的,而且获得了成功。

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The first thing that we have found is that it led to an accelerated human capital accumulation. But the story is very simple. The reason is simple. You used to have many children, 3 or 4 in urban areas, and now you can only have one. So, 96 percent of urban householdson average have just one child. So when parents trade in quantity, they are going to raise their quality, which is why every one of us got a lot of education investment.

我们首先发现,计划生育政策加快了人力资本的积累。这一点说起来非常简单,背后的原因也很简单。过去,每个城市家庭都有3到4个孩子,现在却只有一个。平均来讲,96%的城市家庭只有一个孩子,数量的减少换来的是质量的提升。因此,在我们这一代,每个孩子都获得了巨大的教育投资。

So did you know that actually about 25% of household expenditure every year, on average, is spent on educated one child, one teenager, one only child. 25 percent goes into education. But if you look at twins. OK, twins born under the one child policy——luckily you are allowed to keep your twins, the twins get only about half that much when it comes to their teenage years. So this makes sense. The fewer children you have, the more education investment they got. So in fact, China’s GDP per capita is still pretty low; it ranks 90th something, on the same level of Albania. But its higher education attainment has surpassed many rich countries.

你们知道吗?一个家庭,每年大约有25%的支出是用来教育孩子的。用来教育家里唯一的一个孩子。25%的支出都投入了教育。我们来看看双胞胎家庭的情况,在计划生育政策下出生的双胞胎——幸运的是,大家还是能养双胞胎的。当双胞胎长到十几岁,他们只能获得一半的资源。这是合理的,家里的孩子越少,孩子所能获得的教育投资就越多。事实上,中国的人均GDP依然很低,在世界的排名在90左右,和阿尔巴尼亚一个等级。但是中国的高等教育覆盖率已经超过了许多发达国家。

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Second unintended consequence: it’s a golden era to be a Chinese woman. Why? The reason is simple. We are daughters. So we are raised as an only daughter? But we are also raised as a son. Education has become gender blind. You are going to educate your child no matter whether it’s a daughter or son. So the result, after the one child policy in the 80s, the higher education attainment rate between boys and girls closed.The gap closed. And in fact the returns to schooling for girls are now actually higher than the returns to schooling for boys in China. So women are much more educated.

第二个偶然的后果是什么呢?计划生育政策为中国女性创造了一个黄金时代。为什么这么说?原因很简单。我们是家里的女儿,但我们不仅仅被当作女儿来培养,我们也被当作是家里的儿子。教育已经不分性别,不论你生的是女儿还是儿子,你都会让他/她接受教育。在80年代,实施了计划生育政策以后,男孩儿和女孩儿的受教育程度很接近,它们之间的差距没有了。事实上,在中国女孩儿们学得比男孩儿们还要好,也就是说,女性得到了更多的教育。

But not only are Chinese women more educated, they also have greater bargaining power. And the reason is that the large gender imbalance.

而且中国女性不仅仅获得了更多的教育,她们也拥有更强的谈判能力。因为中国存在巨大的性别失衡。

For now, it’s about, you know, every 117 little boys being born, there’re only 100 girls. So the large gender imbalance, arguably believed related to the one child policy, has led to ascramble for wives. And also research has shown that families start to save, families with son start to save a lot, in order to raise eligibility of their son in the marriage market that’s become increasingly competitive. So everyone is saving for the son. And competition of saving blitz more competition of saving. So I was thinking, now it’s probably better to have a girl now, right? You know, we used to have this mental bias for having sons. It’s probably better to have girls now. Because everyone else is saving for you

你们知道吗?每117个男孩儿出生,对应的只有100个女孩儿。所以,巨大的性别失衡,引发了一场“娶妻之战”,而这种性别失衡就与计划生育政策有关。同时也有研究表明,有儿子的家庭开始大量地储蓄,就是为了在竞争越来越激烈的婚姻市场上,提升自己孩子的竞争力。因此,所有人都在为儿子存钱,而且储蓄的竞争愈演愈烈。所以我就在想,现在做女生也许更好,不是吗?大家知道,过去人们都想要儿子。但是现在,可能生女儿更好。因为其他人都在为女性存钱

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So these is the unintended positives of the one child policy. And, these things are going to help ease a bit of the economic challenges that China will be facing in the next ten years.But there’s a darker side to this as well.

这是计划生育政策意料之外的好处,这些好处将有助于缓解中国在未来十年即将面临的一些经济挑战。但是,计划生育政策也有不好的一面。

I am sure everyone has been aware of the recent suicides that have swept across the country. Jumping out of the window has become a popular activity among the Chinese youths. 13 year-old jumps out of the window because his mother is going to have a second child. 13 year-old jumps out of the window because he is criticized by his teachers. Highschool student jumps out of the window because he and his parents could not agree on the major he is going to take when he goes to an American university. It’s become so common place that new schools being built around, are built into cages: no possible room for jumping out activities. But what this reveals is that there is a common problem that we all share, differences only to a matter of degree, and that problem is this enormous psychological pressure

我相信大家对近来全国各地出现的一些自杀现象都有所耳闻。对于中国的青少年而言,跳楼已经成为一种潮流。13岁的孩子跳出窗外,只因为他妈妈想再要一个孩子;13岁的孩子跳出窗外,只因为他被老师批评了;高中生跳出窗外,只因为他要去美国留学,而父母不同意他念想念的专业。现在,周围新建的学校,都把自己做成笼子,让学生没办法从楼上跳下去。但这恰恰反映了一个问题,孩子们承受着巨大的心理压力,这种压力普遍存在,只是程度不同。

Pressure not only to perform, but pressure to cave into our parents’ wishes and desires, which are often in conflict with our own. Now the world sees us as selfish, spoiled, ego centric, but they don’t see the hidden price behind being only child. The steep hidden price behind the love and attention, and care, that our parents never failed to remind us of all the time. And that price is that the destiny is often not in our own hands.

压力不仅来源于希望表现得更好,也来源于他们想要努力实现家长的期望。而家长的期望,通常都和孩子们自己的愿望存在冲突。大家都认为80后自私、被宠坏了,一切以自我为中心,但他们没有看到作为家里唯一的孩子,背后所隐藏的代价。隐藏在爱与关注背后的沉重的代价,也是父母从不曾向我们提起的代价:我们的命运往往不能掌握在自己手中。

Because on the one hand, we are allured by this modern way of life: the modern way of thinking, the opportunities to which we have access now. In large part thanks to our parents.On the other hand we feel obligation and duty. We are only child. We have no siblings among whom we can share that burden, to free ride off. We feel the pressure to answer to their wishes.

因为一方面,我们面对众多的诱惑:现代的生活方式和思维方式,以及我们所能获得的众多机会。而这些,大多数都得益于我们的父母。另一方面,我们也要承担责任。我们是家里唯一的孩子,没有兄弟姐妹和我们分担这份责任。我们承受了巨大的压力,要去实现父母的期许。

And they will tell you, we know what’s best for you. The parents will tell what’s best for you. We’ve been through this hardship. We know about life. Be practical. Don’t take too many risks. They tell you: don’t study literature, study finance; go get a foreign diploma, but hurry back home and stay close; do not have a girlfriend or boyfriend in school because that’s too distracting for work; get your degree first, find a stable job and then contemplate dating. But by the time you are in your mid twenties, you better be married with a child on the way because otherwise you are doomed. So this leave us about one year? To find our life’s soul mate?

而且他们会告诉你,我们知道什么才是对你最好的。父母会分辨什么是对你最好的。我们都经历过这些艰苦,我们了解生活,实际点吧,不要太冒险。他们告诉你:学金融,而不是文学;去国外留学拿个学位,但是又要赶紧回来待在他们身边;在学校不要谈恋爱,这会让你分心;先拿到学位,找到稳定的工作才能考虑约会。但是,当你到了二十五、六岁,他们又说,你最好赶紧结婚生孩子,否则就太失败了。这样一来,我们有多少时间来找到自己一生的挚爱呢?一年?

Girls, be number one, always, everytime. So there we go. We get our degrees. I have a PhD from Harvard. My friend away here has a master’s from Stanford. And there is, you know,北外(Beijing Foreign LanguageUniversity),清华(Qinghua University),北大(PekingUniversity). All these girls get these degrees, and then they tell us, oh but you are only girls in the end, do what you have to do: settle down.

女孩儿们,永远要争第一。然后我们就变成了这个样子。我们拿到学位——我是哈佛的博士,我一个朋友是斯坦福的硕士,还有北外、清华、北大等等众多学校。女孩儿们都去上大学,获得学位,然后他们又告诉我们:你们终究是女孩儿,要做女孩儿该做的事:结婚安定下来。

So the golden era that Iillustrated you for Chinese women is only up to the point at which you get your fancy degree and then we are back to the starting line. There is a mismatch,don’t you think? An evolutionary mismatch between society that has changed and the values that have remained outdated? I mean for all the tiger mothers that we’ve got, and I know you have one too. They push us to the extreme. They equipus with a world class education. And they send us to this school and that school to get this skill and that skill. And in the end they are convinced that we are incapable of making our own decisions, making the right choices. So then, what’s this education about? What’s the use of tiger mothers if they in the end themselves don’t believe in the products they carefully crafted.

我所讲的中国女性的黄金时代就与此有关。在这个时代,女孩儿们拿到耀眼的学位,然后又回到起跑线,这难道不是一种错配吗?社会变迁过程中出现的错配,伴随着过时的价值观一起出现。我的意思是,对于所有的虎妈而言——我知道你们每个人都有一个虎妈,她们督促前进,把我们逼到极限,让我们接受世界级的教育,把我们送去各种各样的学校,学习各种各样的技能。最后,她们却不相信我们能自己做决定,坚信我们不能做出正确的选择。如果是这样,教育的意义在哪里?如果最后,虎妈们并不相信自己费尽心力培养出来的孩子,她们的努力又有什么用呢?

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Now, I am an only child. I left home when I was 14 to study aboard. My parents gave up everything so that I could have a bright future. They are everything to me and I am absolutely everything to them. But I face the same struggle as all of you. And the struggle is duty to family, responsibility to myself. But I realized a whileago, that because of this generational gap, probably the largest we have seen in Chinese history, that only I knew what was right for me. Only I knew the life that I wanted to lead, the values that I cherished, and the moral code that I wanted to adopt.

我就是家里唯一的孩子,14岁的时候,我就离开家去国外念书。为了让我能拥有一个美好的未来,父母放弃了一切。父母是我的一切,而我当然也是她们的一切。我和你们所有人面临着相同的困境,这个困境是我们对家庭的责任。但是不久前我意识到,正是因为这种代沟——也许是中国历史上最大的代沟,我才知道,对我而言,什么是正确的。只有我知道自己想过怎样的生活,只有我了解自己所珍视的价值观以及所选择的道德标准。

You see the world is bedazzled by China’s numbers. The numbers that are attached to the country, that has seen economic growth, besides its GDP, progress. But behind this figures and numbers, it’s a national sickie that they may fail to comprehend. And it’s asickie that’s as important as the institutions and system that has underpinned China’s progress.

我们知道,世界被中国的各种数字所迷惑——除了GDP以外的,与这个国家有关的数字。它们见证了这个国家的经济增长,但是,在这些数字和数据背后,是他们无法理解的这个国家的病症。这个病症和支撑中国增长的体制、系统同等重要。

So tomorrow, China tomorrow, is going to be in large part shaped by the sickie of our generation, our ethers,our values, and our attitude in life. China’s tomorrow is really you. You will be pushing the artistic frontier. You will be creating China’s global image, you will be China’s pace maker. Now there are wonderful things in our culture and tradition that we must preserve. Confusion values and code of ethics that we must revitalize. But we, and the world needs leaders from China who can think for themselves, take responsibility in their actions. Be creative not just pragmatic. You are an only child, but you cannot lead China as if we were one too.But you must find siblings in the form of our African brothers, our European sisters.

因此,中国的未来,很大程度上取决于我们这一代人,取决于我们这一代的信仰、价值观和生活态度。中国的未来就是你,你将会推动艺术的边界,你将会塑造未来中国在全球的形象,你将会是中国的领跑者。在我们的文化和传统中,有我们必须要坚持的宝贵的财富,也有我们必须要振兴的价值观和道德规范,世界需要中国的领军人物为自己打算,为自己的行为负责。实用之外再多一点点创造性。你是家里唯一的孩子,但是如果我们也都是分离独立的自己,就无法引领中国。我们要在全世界范围内寻找兄弟姐妹。

But way before that, you need to rise above that pressure, no matter how difficult it is for current society to understand. You need to put destiny back in your own hands.

但在那之前,我们需要抵住压力无论在当前社会,这有多么难以理解我们都需要重新将命运掌握在自己手里。

我们这一代人有我们自己的理想和追求,虽然我们和上一代是不一样的,但是我们同样是务实的,同样有担当,不同的是我们是在新的历史条件下来实现我们的价值,执行我们的使命。

谢谢!

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