AcAdemic archive
Dr. Keyu Jin is an associate professor of Economics at the London school of Economics. She is from Beijing, China, and holds a B.A., M.A. and Phd from Harvard University.
Her research is on international economics - such as why capital flows from poor to rich countries, how the global implications of U.S. monetary and fiscal policies have changed; as well as on how the rise of China impacts the global economy, from several perspectives - trade, capital flows, global interest rates and saving, demographics, productivity and technology.
Dr. Keyu’s book, The New China Playbook, is available now.
Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy
We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraints, more severe in fast-growing countries, can explain three prominent global trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the U.S. and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about 40 percent of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time.
Nicolas Coeurdacier Sciences, Po Paris and CEPR
Stephane Guibaud London School of Economics
Keyu Jin London School of Economics
American Economic Review 105 (9): 2838-81
Abstract
We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraints, more severe in fast-growing countries, can explain three prominent global trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the U.S. and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about 40 percent of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time.
Industrial Structure and Capital Flows
This paper provides a new theory of international capital flows. In a framework that integrates factor-proportions-based trade and financial capital flows, a novel force emerges: capital tends to flow toward countries that become more specialized in capital-intensive industries. This "composition" effect competes with the standard force that channels capital toward the location where it is scarcer. If the composition effect dominates, capital flows away from the country hit by a positive labor force/productivity shock—a flow "reversal." Extended to a quantitative framework, the model generates sizable current account imbalances between developing and developed countries broadly consistent with the data. (JEL F14, F21, F32, F41, L16, O19)
Keyu Jin
American Economic Review 2012, 102(5): 2111-2146.
Abstract
This paper provides a new theory of international capital flows. In a framework that integrates factor-proportions-based trade and financial capital flows, a novel force emerges: capital tends to flow toward countries that become more specialized in capital-intensive industries. This “composition” effect competes with the standard force that channels capital toward the location where it is scarcer. If the composition effect dominates, capital flows away from the country hit by a positive labor force/productivity shock—a flow “reversal.’’ Extended to a quantitative framework, the model generates sizable current account imbalances between developing and developed countries broadly consistent with the data. (JEL F14, F21, F32, F41, L16, O19)